Analysis of the situation and trends of its development in the de-occupied sections of the state border
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33405/2786-8613/2025/2/6/350899Keywords:
analysis, forecast, state border, de-occupied territory, situation, border security, operational and service activities, border detachment, scenarioAbstract
This scientific article provides a comprehensive analysis of the situation and identifies key trends in its development in the de-occupied areas of Ukraine's state border with the russian federation. It has been established that modern threats to border security are complex and hybrid in nature and are shaped by military, informational, criminal, and socio-economic factors. The results of the activities of the State Border Service of Ukraine in protecting and defending the state border have been analyzed, which has made it possible to identify the imperfection of the systematic approach to assessing the situation, which complicates the adoption of operational and strategic decisions, the formation of preventive measures, and the forecasting of crisis situations.
Three main scenarios for the development of the situation are substantiated: continuation of the active phase of hostilities, ceasefire for an indefinite period, and stabilization of the situation with the conflict frozen. For each scenario, the predicted threats to border security are identified, including intensified reconnaissance and sabotage activities, the formation of enemy agent networks, the militarization of border regions by the russian federation and the Republic of Belarus, the organization of illegal migration flows and smuggling activities, aerial reconnaissance, covert surveillance, and demonstrative military maneuvers. Separate attention is paid to threats of informational and informational-psychological influence aimed at destabilizing the socio-political situation in border regions, as well as the possibility of resuming military confrontation under conditions favorable to the enemy.
It has been determined that the impact of existing challenges and threats on the security environment of the de-occupied sections of the state border remains significant, which justifies the need for constant monitoring of the situation, systematic analysis of trends in its development, and forecasting of possible crisis situations to ensure reliable protection of the state border and border security by the bodies and units of the State Border Service of Ukraine.
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