State security

Results of the analysis of the border security environment in the context of integrated management of the state border of Ukraine

2026-01-26T14:16:29+02:00

The article substantiates the need for scientific research in the field of integrated management of Ukraine's state border (hereinafter r - IBM), with the aim of creating methodological tools, practical recommendations, draft regulatory documents, and technical solutions for assessing and ensuring the legal, organizational, semantic, and technical interoperability of Ukraine's border security system with a similar system in the European Union (hereinafter - EU). The study should be conducted in the context of compliance with pan-European security standards (in particular, the priorities of the European Border and Coast Guard and its agency Frontex), taking into account the differentiated conditions of Ukraine's security environment and respect for recognized human rights.
It should be noted that the key issues are the development of capabilities and improvement of the effectiveness of the State Border Service of Ukraine and other entities of the Ukrainian border control system in ensuring the inviolability of the state border and protecting the sovereign rights of Ukraine in its adjacent and exclusive (maritime) economic zones, while simultaneously improving the effectiveness of the management of the external borders of the EU and its associated members in accordance with the objectives set out in strategic planning documents.
At the initial stage of developing the IBM Strategy, it is necessary to analyze Ukraine's security environment, as it has a direct impact on the activities of all the IBM entities. It is also necessary to analyze the state of the IBM in order to determine and assess its level of effectiveness, taking into account current and potential threats to border security, the status of implementation of strategic development goals, and the expected results of their achievement, taking into account the components of the European IBM.

Integral indicator of the effectiveness of radio-controlled munition countermeasure systems on armoured and automotive vehicles of security and defence forces

2026-01-26T15:29:52+02:00

The article proposes a methodological framework for evaluating the effectiveness of radio-controlled explosive device (RCED) neutralization systems — a critical component of the security apparatus of the National Guard of Ukraine (NGU) units. The purpose of the research is to develop a formal mathematical model which enables a comparative assessment of various technical and organizational-technical protection solutions using a comprehensive set of criteria that includes both combat performance and cost-effectiveness. The tasks addressed include: (1) identifying key technical, tactical-operational, informational-analytical, command, personnel training, economic, standardization, and reliability indicators as constituents of the integral effectiveness index; (2) formalizing normalization, weighting, and aggregation procedures of the indicators; (3) proposing a formula for the cost-efficiency ratio “effectiveness/costs”; (4) defining a procedure to filter out ineffective solutions; (5) constructing a resource-allocation model across different equipment variants and life-cycle stages under budget constraints; (6) demonstrating the calculation of integral and specific effectiveness indices on exemplary alternatives; (7) justifying decision-making logic for financing prioritization; (8) showing the model’s flexibility for adaptation to changing threat and resource conditions; (9) evaluating the practical feasibility of the model for military implementation.
As research methods, the study applies multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, normalization and weighting procedures, construction of integral and cost-efficiency indices, and illustrative simulation calculations. The results demonstrate that the proposed model enables quantitative comparison of different protection systems and supports informed decision-making about modernization, procurement, or decommissioning. A concrete numerical example shows that a system with the highest absolute effectiveness may have a lower cost-effectiveness ratio than a cheaper alternative – pability.
The proposed methodology is suitable for strategic planning within the security and defense sector, budget allocation for armament and special equipment, risk assessment, and adaptive resource management for NGU units.

Decentralized decision-making in small units: the experience of the russian-ukrainian war

2026-01-26T15:57:47+02:00

Modern conditions of armed struggle require new approaches to the management of small units. The experience of the russian-ukrainian war has shown that the effectiveness of combat operations depends not only on technical equipment, but also on the ability of platoon and unit commanders to make decisions independently in conditions of limited information and a rapidly changing situation.

In the practice of combat operations, the principle of decentralized control (mission command) is increasingly used, which involves providing subordinates with a significant level of autonomy in performing tasks. The senior commander determines the overall goal, plan and final result, while the methods of achieving it are determined at lower levels of management. This approach significantly reduces the unit's response time, increases the initiative of commanders on the ground, and reduces the risk of control paralysis in the event of loss of communication or a change in the situation.

The decentralized model effectively demonstrated itself in battles in the eastern and southern directions in 2022-2025, when units of the Armed Forces and the National Guard operated in disjointed areas, often isolated from the main forces. Platoon commanders independently made decisions on maneuver, choice of positions, organization of observation and interaction with neighboring units.
The results of the analysis of combat experience show that the key conditions for successful decentralization are:
- high-quality professional training of junior commanders;
- trust between levels of management;
- the presence of clear standard operating procedures (SOP);
- organization of continuous information exchange.
At the same time, it should be noted that decentralized management requires a change in approaches to personnel training. The traditional system, oriented towards a rigid hierarchy, does not contribute to the development of initiative and creativity. Therefore, in the training programs of platoon and company commanders, it is advisable to strengthen the role of tactical games, command and staff training and simulations, which develop the ability to act independently in difficult conditions.
Decentralized management in the military sphere involves the transfer of authority and decision-making to lower levels, which increases the flexibility and efficiency of the army. In Ukraine, as an example of such a system, the Delta hardware and software complex is used, which combines data from various sources to create a single battle map available to the command and units.

Conceptual model for preventing and counteracting discrimination in the system of training specialists for the security and defence forces of Ukraine: theoretical and methodological basis for development

2026-01-26T16:35:29+02:00

The article substantiates the theoretical and methodological foundations for developing a conceptual model for preventing and combating discrimination in the system of training specialists for the security and defence forces of Ukraine. The results of the study show that the formation of a conceptual model for preventing and counteracting discrimination in the system of training specialists for the security and defence forces of Ukraine is based on a combination of general scientific and special methods of cognition, in particular systemic, structural-functional, formal-legal, comparative-legal and modelling. The methodological basis of the conceptual model under development is the provisions of the theory of state security, administrative and constitutional law, human rights theory, as well as doctrinal approaches to reforming the security and defence sector in the context of Euro-Atlantic integration. With regard to the regulatory and legal basis for the formation of the conceptual model, it is noted that the prevention and counteraction of discrimination in the system of training specialists for the security and defence forces of Ukraine are based on a combination of international human rights standards and the provisions of national legislation.
The study provided grounds for considering the proposed conceptual model as a comprehensive multi-level system aimed at creating a non-discriminatory, inclusive, safe and legally regulated educational environment in the system of training specialists for the security and defence forces of Ukraine, which provides equal opportunities for all participants in the educational process regardless of gender, age, disability, social or ethnic origin, beliefs and other characteristics (features). The purpose of the conceptual model is to minimise discriminatory risks in the process of training specialists for the security and defence forces of Ukraine by introducing (integrating) into a single personnel training management system systemic preventive (discrimination prevention) and reactive (discrimination counteraction) legal, organisational and educational mechanisms based on the principles of the rule of law, equality, non-discrimination, meritocracy, consistency, institutional responsibility, transparency and accountability.

Information security provision in the defense sector of Ukraine

2026-01-26T16:53:50+02:00

Modern warfare increasingly unfolds in the information-psychological domain. Ukraine, facing prolonged hybrid aggression from Russia, confronts large-scale cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and attempts to undermine public trust in state institutions and societal unity. In response to these challenges, the role of information security has evolved into a key element of the state's defense policy and a crucial condition for its survival and development.
The article focuses on defining the role of information security within Ukraineʹs defense sector and its importance for protecting sovereignty and democratic institutions. It outlines the characteristics of current threats, including cyber sabotage targeting critical infrastructure, manipulation of public opinion, and discrediting campaigns against the Armed Forces and government bodies. In this context, traditional weaponry and defense structures remain vulnerable without robust protection of the information space, requiring modern technical solutions and coordinated efforts among all government institutions, civil society, and international partners.
The concept of cyber resilience is examined as the capacity of the state, institutions, and citizens to withstand threats and restore functionality after attacks. The experience of establishing integrated incident response centers, which combine resources from the public and private sectors to provide real-time monitoring and coordinated action, is analyzed. The article highlights the importance of interdisciplinary training for cybersecurity specialists and raising public media literacy, which enhances societal resistance to information influence.
In conclusion, information security amid hybrid warfare is presented not merely as a technical or organizational task but as a strategic component of national defense, encompassing political, social, and technological factors. Building an effective system of information security and cyber defense determines Ukraine’s success in countering modern threats and preserving statehood.

Analysis of regulatory and legal aspects of the use of artificial intelligence in military management systems

2026-01-26T17:04:59+02:00

Based on an analysis of existing regulatory and legal aspects, attention is focused on key legal issues and risks associated with the use of AI in combat management: responsibility and legal accountability, compliance with international humanitarian law (IHL), protection of personal data and intelligence data, dual-use and export restrictions, reliability, explainability and testing, ethical and human rights issues; indicative regulatory practices are presented: what Ukraine should consider – formalization of internal rules for defense agencies, ensuring human control, application of accountability and audit mechanisms, compliance with international documents and compatibility with partners, control over the export/import of technologies, and cooperation with industry; proposes practical recommendations (specific steps) for the implementation of AI in Ukrainian military affairs: a national concept/strategy for regulating AI in the defense sector procedures, certification, and testing for DSS used in combat management, the principle of human control in regulations, a mechanism for distributing responsibility between the manufacturer, operator, and state, rules for data processing and protection in defense AI systems, transparency and accountability, training and professional development, cooperation with international partners; international standards and the influence of external regulations are described; international experience, ethical principles, and national security needs were taken into account in the writing of this article; outlines aspects of the current national legal framework and initiatives for the application of artificial intelligence in military command and control systems.
It identifies areas for further research necessary to improve regulatory oversight in the field of AI application in military command and control, namely: detailed analysis of specific cases of AI application in combat conditions in Ukraine (legal, ethical, operational); study of legal precedents (in international law, international humanitarian justice) regarding liability for the actions of autonomous or semi-autonomous systems; development of a methodology for risk assessment and auditing of AI systems in defense department standards; research on the integration of AI solutions with cybersecurity systems, protection of personal and operational data, intellectual property, and state secrets; empirical research in the context of the attitude of society, military personnel, and commanders towards the use of AI in combat management, in order to take social and psychological factors into account in regulatory regulation.

Protection of critical infrastructure: methods of counteracting targeted attacks on electronic communication systems of the security and defense forces of Ukraine

2026-01-27T09:30:06+02:00

The article examines the problem of ensuring the protection of electronic communication systems of the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine under the conditions of modern hybrid warfare, which is accompanied by the growing impact of cyber and radio-electronic threats. It is demonstrated that traditional information security approaches focused exclusively on cryptographic methods or radio engineering solutions are insufficient given the complex multi-vector influence of the adversary. Particular attention is paid to a comprehensive approach to countering targeted attacks, which encompasses cybersecurity measures, physical protection of communication equipment, and improvement of electronic communication protocols. A multi-layer cyber protection model is proposed, combining cryptographic mechanisms (AES-256, RSA, NTRU), adaptive frequency-hopping techniques, the use of SIEM systems, and the reservation of HF/VHF/UHF and satellite communication channels. The results show that the proposed solutions significantly reduce the risk of successful targeted attacks, improve the continuity and reliability of communication processes, and ensure an adequate level of information security. The article outlines directions for future research related to the integration of quantum-resistant encryption algorithms, the development of artificial-intelligence-based threat detection technologies, the creation of unified standards and methodological recommendations for building comprehensive cybersecurity systems for military communications, and the improvement of physical protection measures for electronic communication infrastructure, including Starlink satellite equipment. The findings confirm the effectiveness of the integrated cybersecurity approach and its scalability for real combat conditions.

Theoretical basis for improving the career growth of military personnel of the security and defence forces of Ukraine

2026-01-27T09:57:54+02:00

The article provides a comprehensive theoretical and methodological analysis of the problem of improving the career growth of military personnel of the Security and Defence Forces of Ukraine under conditions of prolonged armed aggression by the Russian Federation and the operation of the legal regime of martial law. It substantiates that the career growth of military personnel should be considered not only as an individual process of service advancement but as a systemic and continuous process of professional, managerial, and personal development that directly affects personnel security, institutional resilience, and the state’s capacity to ensure national and state security.
Based on an analysis of contemporary scientific approaches as well as the current regulatory and legal framework governing military service and military education, key problems in the functioning of the career growth system for military personnel have been identified, including its fragmented nature, the dominance of formalised criteria for promotion, an insufficient level of transparency in personnel procedures, and the limited integration of educational and professional training outcomes into personnel decision-making processes. It is emphasised that under conditions of martial law these problems become particularly relevant and may negatively affect the effectiveness of task performance by the Security and Defence Forces of Ukraine.
Special attention is devoted to substantiating the role of professional development, the system of Professional Military Education, and military leadership as key factors in shaping effective career trajectories for military personnel. The importance of the principles of meritocracy, systemic coherence, continuity of education, institutional responsibility, and compliance with Euro-Atlantic standards of human resource management in the Security and Defence Forces of Ukraine is highlighted. It is proven that improving career growth should be regarded as a strategic direction of state personnel policy aimed at preserving and developing human potential, forming a managerial reserve, and enhancing the effectiveness of the Security and Defence Forces of Ukraine in the face of contemporary security challenges.

International legal level of regulation of civil–military cooperation in the National Guard of Ukraine

2026-01-27T10:28:52+02:00

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the international legal level of regulation of civil–military cooperation in the activities of the National Guard of Ukraine as a specific entity of the security and defence sector that combines military and law enforcement functions.
It is established that international treaties, such as the Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War (1949) and its Additional Protocols, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (1966), and the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (with Protocols) (European Convention on Human Rights) (1950), enshrine the obligation of states to guarantee respect for human rights even during periods of armed conflict or states of emergency. It is emphasised that the practical significance of international human rights standards for civil–military cooperation is also confirmed by the case law of the European Court of Human Rights, which effectively forms binding law-enforcement guidelines for the States Parties to the European Convention on Human Rights regarding the activities of military formations and law enforcement bodies in crisis and conflict situations. A number of ECtHR judgments underline that even in the context of counter-terrorism activities, internal armed conflict, or a state of emergency, the state is obliged to ensure effective control over the actions of security and defence forces and an adequate level of protection of the civilian population.

It is noted that within NATO doctrine, civil–military cooperation is aimed at creating a favourable civilian environment that ensures the achievement of strategic and operational objectives of military operations. Thus, it is regarded not merely as a humanitarian instrument, but as an integral component of operational planning and an element of the command and control system. For Ukraine, which has declared a course towards Euro-Atlantic integration, these standards serve as guiding benchmarks and are gradually being implemented into the national regulatory framework. In the context of the activities of the National Guard of Ukraine, international legal CIMIC standards constitute a methodological basis for the development of departmental guidelines, personnel training programmes, and the organisation of interaction with civilian structures, international and non-governmental organisations.

Retrospective of the involvement of the State Borderguard Service of Ukraine in ensuring national security

2026-01-27T11:28:08+02:00

In 2014, the russian federation launched a hybrid war against Ukraine, which escalated into a full-scale invasion in February 2022. The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (hereinafter referred to as the SBGS) is a special-purpose law enforcement agency and part of the defense forces, which are entrusted by the Constitution and laws of Ukraine with the functions of ensuring the defense of the state and, along with other entities of the defense forces, defend the state sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country.
According to the current legislation, during martial law, border guard detachments may be involved by the relevant military command and control bodies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the liquidation (neutralization) of an armed conflict on the state border of Ukraine, international armed conflict, and repulsion of armed aggression against Ukraine [1]. In practice, the main way to involve the SBGS units in actions is to transfer them to operational subordination (under operational control) of the commanders of units (brigades, battalions) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard of Ukraine.
The article focuses on some aspects that negatively affect the effectiveness of the SBGS tasks and provides recommendations on the use of SBGS forces and means in the system of defense forces under martial law. The article also analyses the transformation of the tasks performed by the border guard agency and its role in ensuring the national security of the State from the moment of Ukraine's independence to the present day.

Cybersecurity system of the public sector of Ukraine: structural problems, governance models, and strategic modernization directions

2026-01-27T11:50:35+02:00

The article provides a comprehensive theoretical and methodological justification of the strategic foundations for developing the cybersecurity system in the public sector of Ukraine amid digital transformation, European integration, and full-scale armed aggression. Based on an analysis of current legislation, the Cybersecurity Strategy and the Information Security Strategy of Ukraine, as well as international standards (NIS2, NIST CSF 2.0, Zero Trust Architecture), the study systematizes modern approaches to cybersecurity of public institutions. The content of key public administration categories adapted to the sphere of public-sector cybersecurity is clarified, including “public-sector cybersecurity system”, “strategic foundations for cybersecurity system development,” and “public-administration mechanisms in the field of cybersecurity".
Key global trends and national challenges are identified, along with structural problems of the national cybersecurity system: fragmented regulatory frameworks, uneven cybersecurity maturity of public authorities, workforce shortages, underdeveloped risk-oriented management and security culture, and limited partnership engagement with business and civil society.
A system of strategic goals and principles for developing public-sector cybersecurity is proposed, oriented toward ensuring the resilience of public services, integration of the governance framework, and institutionalization of multilevel partnerships. A conceptual model of strategic cybersecurity system development is elaborated, comprising normative-strategic, institutional-managerial, process-political, technological, human-resource/educational, partnership, and monitoring-evaluation components. A set of tools for implementation, monitoring, and performance evaluation–suitable for practical use in state and local government bodies—is also outlined.

Model of the functioning of a battalion tactical group of the National Guard of Ukraine in a stabilization operations scenario

2026-01-27T12:13:32+02:00

The article develops a formal model of the functioning of a battalion tactical group of the National Guard of Ukraine in a stabilization operations scenario, aimed at substantiating managerial decisions regarding the composition, structure, and employment of units in crisis areas. The relevance of the study is determined by the increasing role of stabilization operations under conditions of armed aggression, hybrid threats, and prolonged post-conflict territorial governance, which require the integration of military, law enforcement, and humanitarian functions of security forces.
It is demonstrated that existing approaches to modeling battalion tactical groups are predominantly focused on conventional combat operations and do not sufficiently account for the specific nature of stabilization tasks, including long-term territorial control, protection of critical infrastructure, patrolling, filtration and counter-sabotage measures, as well as interaction with the civilian population and public authorities.
The proposed model is based on a systemic representation of the battalion tactical group of the National Guard of Ukraine as a hierarchical organizational and functional system operating under conditions of a dynamic security environment. The model formalizes the sequence of service and combat processes of stabilization actions in the form of a finite-state system, a threat model that accounts for sabotage activity, criminalization of the area, information and psychological influence, and social tension, as well as a resource model reflecting combat capability, fatigue, medical losses, and logistical support of units.
Special attention is paid to the consideration of resource depletion factors and the accumulation of physical and psychological fatigue of personnel, which significantly affect the effectiveness of stabilization actions in long-term operations. To assess the effectiveness of the functioning of the battalion tactical group of the National Guard of Ukraine, an integral performance indicator is proposed, combining the level of area security, responsiveness to incidents, the level of civilian trust, and the degree of resource exhaustion.
The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of using the proposed model as a scientific and methodological basis for planning stabilization operations, substantiating the rational composition of battalion tactical groups of the National Guard of Ukraine, and improving the quality of training of commanders and staffs within the system of professional military education.

Application of artificial intelligence in intelligence activities under modern warfare conditions

2026-01-27T15:17:40+02:00

The article explores the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in intelligence activities during modern warfare. It substantiates that the rapid development of information technologies, the increasing volumes of data, and the complexity of armed conflicts require the integration of machine learning algorithms and neural networks into the processes of collecting, processing, and analyzing intelligence data. The study demonstrates that modern intelligence faces the challenge of information overload and the necessity of timely interpretation of heterogeneous data sources – from satellite imagery and signals of electronic intelligence to open-source information and social media. The application of AI enables automated object detection, signal classification, text analysis, as well as integration of data from different domains (HUMINT, SIGINT, GEOINT, OSINT) into a unified operational picture. Particular attention is paid to the use of predictive analytics and multi-agent models that support commanders in decision-making, especially in forecasting enemy actions. The article outlines key challenges hindering the widespread adoption of AI: the technical reliability of algorithms, the risk of manipulation and disinformation, cybersecurity threats, and legal and ethical constraints. It emphasizes the prospects for further research in the development of cognitive systems, the integration of AI with electronic warfare and cyber intelligence, and the advancement of national technological solutions in Ukraine. The scientific novelty of the study lies in its focus on the use of AI specifically in military intelligence, which allows for substantiating its role as a key instrument of achieving information superiority in modern wars. The practical significance of the research is determined by the formation of a foundation for the development of intelligent systems that enhance the analytical capabilities of military structures and ensure effective command and control under the high dynamics of combat operations.

Analysis of threats and risks to critical infrastructure facilities of the state Border Service of Ukraine

2026-01-27T15:30:59+02:00

The article provides a systematic analysis of threats and risks affecting critical infrastructure facilities of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. It substantiates the relevance of ensuring the stability of critically important facilities of the border agency in everyday conditions and under special legal regimes, on which border security, the state's defense capability, and the stability of management, communication, logistics, and life support systems directly depend. It is shown that modern threats to critical infrastructure facilities of the State Border Service of Ukraine are complex and multidimensional in nature and include military, terrorist, man-made, cybernetic, information-psychological, and socio-economic factors.
Scientific sources on critical infrastructure security issues have been analyzed, and an insufficient level of complexity in approaches to risk assessment in the border area has been identified. It is emphasized that there is a need to develop a holistic approach to the analysis of threats and risks to critical infrastructure facilities of the State Border Service of Ukraine, which would combine aspects of everyday activities and functioning under special legal regimes.
The study clarifies the essence of the concepts of “threat” and “risk” as basic elements of the critical infrastructure security management system. The author proposes a classification of threats to critical infrastructure facilities of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. For each category, typical scenarios of their implementation and the nature of their impact are identified. The classification is based on the principles of systematicity, comprehensiveness, adaptability, and practicality, and takes into account international experience in critical infrastructure protection.
A generalized risk matrix for critical infrastructure facilities of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine has been developed, which systematizes typical risk categories by facility and determines their criticality levels. Analysis of the matrix revealed the dominance of military-political, terrorist, sabotage, cyber, and operational risks, the realization of which could lead to a violation of the organizational stability of the management system and a decrease in the effectiveness of operational and service activities.
The results obtained make it possible to determine the priorities for protecting critical infrastructure facilities, optimize the allocation of resources, and form the basis for building an integrated risk management system in the State Border Service of Ukraine. The proposed approach provides the opportunity to identify vulnerable elements in a timely manner, predict threats, and develop preventive and compensatory measures. The practical implementation of the research results will be an important factor in increasing the resilience of the critical infrastructure of the border agency, ensuring its continuous and effective functioning both in everyday conditions and under special legal regimes.

Integration of 5G-networks into military communication systems: prospects and challenges

2026-01-27T15:38:38+02:00

Modern operations of the defence forces of Ukraine require high-speed, secure and flexible military communication systems capable of supporting massive connectivity of sensors, unmanned and autonomous platforms, decision-support systems and logistics services in real time. Traditional tactical-level networks based on legacy technologies do not provide the required throughput, latency and resilience to cyber threats under conditions of intensive use of electronic warfare means and enemy cyber operations. Fifth-generation mobile communication technology (5G) is considered by the leading armies of the world as a key element in the transformation of C4ISR systems, tactical networks and the Internet of Military Things (IoMT) infrastructure.
The article examines the technical capabilities of 5G that are critical for military use, in particular high throughput, ultra-low latency, increased reliability, support for massive device connectivity and network slicing mechanisms. The potential of 5G for building distributed sensor networks, supporting “swarms” of unmanned and autonomous combat platforms, integrating artificial intelligence systems into the command-and-control and weapon-control loops, as well as automating logistics processes is shown. The international experience of NATO, the USA, EU member states and China in deploying private defence 5G networks and integrating them with existing communication systems is summarised. It is substantiated that the extensive use of virtualised components, open interfaces and multi-vendor solutions in 5G leads to a significant increase in the attack surface and forms a new spectrum of cyber threats, problems of compatibility with legacy communication systems and risks of technological dependence on foreign suppliers. The main approaches to the phased integration of 5G into the military communication systems of the defence forces of Ukraine are formulated, including the requirements for the architecture of private networks, the organisation of cyber defence and the management of supply-chain risks.

Analysis of the situation and trends of its development in the de-occupied sections of the state border

2026-01-27T15:51:36+02:00

This scientific article provides a comprehensive analysis of the situation and identifies key trends in its development in the de-occupied areas of Ukraine's state border with the russian federation. It has been established that modern threats to border security are complex and hybrid in nature and are shaped by military, informational, criminal, and socio-economic factors. The results of the activities of the State Border Service of Ukraine in protecting and defending the state border have been analyzed, which has made it possible to identify the imperfection of the systematic approach to assessing the situation, which complicates the adoption of operational and strategic decisions, the formation of preventive measures, and the forecasting of crisis situations.
Three main scenarios for the development of the situation are substantiated: continuation of the active phase of hostilities, ceasefire for an indefinite period, and stabilization of the situation with the conflict frozen. For each scenario, the predicted threats to border security are identified, including intensified reconnaissance and sabotage activities, the formation of enemy agent networks, the militarization of border regions by the russian federation and the Republic of Belarus, the organization of illegal migration flows and smuggling activities, aerial reconnaissance, covert surveillance, and demonstrative military maneuvers. Separate attention is paid to threats of informational and informational-psychological influence aimed at destabilizing the socio-political situation in border regions, as well as the possibility of resuming military confrontation under conditions favorable to the enemy.
It has been determined that the impact of existing challenges and threats on the security environment of the de-occupied sections of the state border remains significant, which justifies the need for constant monitoring of the situation, systematic analysis of trends in its development, and forecasting of possible crisis situations to ensure reliable protection of the state border and border security by the bodies and units of the State Border Service of Ukraine.